Fresh Thoughts #104: The Fight to Keep It "Real"
- Newsletter
"Study history, study history. In history lies all the secrets of statecraft."
Confucius, (551-479 BC)
This week, I found myself looking back in history.
It was triggered by the announcement that the Monki Gras tech conference will return after a long hiatus.
Always a quirky and irreverent affair - Monki Gras is returning with the theme of "Prompt Craft".
This fits perfectly with the seemingly daily request - How do we use AI effectively and securely?
In 2010, I was receiving the exact requests about cloud computing.
In response, Poste Italiane sponsored me to write my 2011 paper, Cybersecurity and Information Assurance in Cloud Computing.
Distilling the paper into a sentence: "The [only] strategic benefit of... cybersecurity is to ensure continued safe and compliant operation of the enterprise while adopting new technologies and techniques."
Then, it was Cloud Computing.
Now it's Artificial Intelligence.
As IT and security professionals, we are asked - how do we solve a problem like AI?
It's not precisely like cloud computing...
...as it has more significant social impact issues along with the technology advancement concerns.
But the approach is the same.
Look to history...
Will AI Take My Job?
The current doom-laden trend of asking - Will AI take my job? - is not new.
The same end-of-the-world-is-nigh thinking occurred when MP3s were set as the end of music publishing. And ebooks - the end of the written word.
The AI tribes are forming.
Are you for or against AI?
I thought of this last week when reading my children's school newsletter.
The children's headmaster highlighted research on the importance of learning handwriting over typing on a keyboard - extolling it as an "uplifting" counterpoint to the current AI news headlines.
"The physical act of fine motor control needed to form the letters with a pen requires, and therefore develops, more brain power than is needed to tap a key."
A few hours after the newsletter arrived, I spoke with a university lecturer friend. She explained that her university was considering switching all exams to in-person, using pen and paper. The hope is that this will reduce the impact of AI on university grades.
The nervousness is palpable.
But what actually happened with MP3s and ebooks?
When MP3s were mainstream in 2006, it was the "death of music", according to some producers.
Yet from 2006 to 2022, the market for the most rarified version of recorded music - vinyl - increased by 4,500%.
And in 2022, vinyl made up 43% of album sales.
Similarly, when ebooks were launched, it was the end of publishing.
Years after ebooks became commonplace, print books out-sold ebooks by 4 to 1 in 2022.
Simply - the worst fears haven't been realised.
But why not?
I have a working hypothesis as to why, that I have been tracking for years.
Ever since I heard a newspaper designer explain the importance of paper quality - It has to be worth holding.
Good quality books, printed on thick, crisp paper, are a real, tactile experience.
I'm told by audiophiles the same can be said of vinyl records if you are willing to spare the attention.
This makes book and music decisions easy...
Do I expect to refer to a book for many years?
Is it worth keeping?
Yes. Buy a hardback edition.
Is the information transitory or disposable?
Synthetic digital is just fine.
I and many others have found a happy balance between traditional, real products and their synthetic, digital alternatives.
And so, to answer the question - Will AI take my job?
In some cases - yes.
Journalists and news anchors will look warily at the new AI-generated news readers on Channel 1 and NewsGPT.
But as transitory, disposable information, AI news fits comfortably into my information consumption paradigm.
However, if you bring opinion, insight and experienced commentary, I will actively tune in for real-human experiences.
February 6, 20243 Minutes Read
